PASCOE VALE v KEILOR
Saturday 2:15pm at Windy Hill
Pascoe Vale and Keilor are set to square off in a highly anticipated Strathmore Community Bank Premier Division grand final at Windy Hill.
Keilor will be hoping to win back-to-back premierships for the first time since 2001 and a victory on Saturday would mark legendary coach Mick McGuane’s fifth premiership in charge of the Blues.
Pascoe Vale will be hoping to follow in Maribyrnong Park and Taylors Lakes' footsteps and win their first premiership in over a decade, with the Panthers last saluting back in 2011 when they won the Division One flag.
A win would also make it the club's first EDFL Premier Division flag.
Both sides have had impressive seasons to date with Keilor claiming a second minor premiership in a row after they lost just the one home-and-away game for the season, while Pascoe Vale backed up their strong 2023 season with another top-two finish.
The two sides have met on three occasions during 2024, with Keilor dominating their first two encounters winning by 133 points back in Round 6 and by 41 points in Round 13.
The Panthers got their revenge in the semi final, causing a huge boilover to win by 34 points.
In Round 6, it was Keilor’s ruthlessness inside 50 and firm defence that set up the thumping victory.
The Blues recorded 68 inside 50s for the day and generated 36 scoring shots while holding Pascoe Vale to just one goal for the entire 120 minutes.
It was Keilor’s superstars who did the damage with Josh Honey collecting 32 touches, nine clearances, and eight inside 50s, and Corey Ellis finishing with 29 disposals and 10 clearances.
Despite the disappointing loss, the game was pivotal moment in the season for Leigh Tudor’s men who have only lost the two games since.
One of which was in Round 13 when it was Keilor’s ability to generate and score off turnovers that won them the game.
Even though Round 13 was a much closer contest, the Blues were still able to cruise to a comfortable victory after forcing an extra 16 turnovers and generating 14 goals from it.
James Bailey put in one of his best performances for the year with 33 disposals and a goal as Chris Kosmas starred once again with 27 touches, eight clearances, and a goal.
In the semi final however, it was Pascoe Vale’s work around clearance and the contest that allowed them to possess the ball and win their way through to the grand final.
Leigh Tudor’s men dominated around the contest recording an extra 43 contested possession and 20 clearances, while taking an extra 37 marks to stretch the Keilor defence.
Jared Eckersley was everywhere finishing with 33 touches and eight clearances while Tom Hofert was dominant in the ruck with 20 disposals, 43 hit outs, and nine clearances.
Co-captain Lachie Stredwick was pivotal in the win, setting up Pascoe Vale’s backline and stopping Keilor’s dynamic forward line with three intercept marks and seven rebound 50s.
If Keilor want to record back-to-back premierships they will need to be able to expose Pascoe Vale off turnovers.
Keilor have been the most efficient team across the competition and one of the best all year at scoring off turnover and punished the Panthers in their two home-and-away games this year.
Pascoe Vale on the other hand have conceded the third most turnovers of any side in the competition and if Keilor are able to win the ball back in dangerous parts of the ground and move the ball with speed, it will limit the influence of Pascoe Vale’s backline and defenders such as Stredwick, Will Hoare, and Matt Stillman.
For Pascoe Vale to win, it will come down to its dominance in contested possession and clearance as well as their ability to control the game and stop Keilor’s run.
The Panthers are the number one contested possession team across the competition and dominated the Blues in the semi final in that area.
Leigh Tudor’s side will be hoping to expose Keilor around clearance on Saturday as this has been a weakness of Keilor all year with the reigning premiers ranking eighth for the year.
Hofert will be hoping to set the tone for the Panthers in the ruck. Keilor have ranked last in the competition for hit outs and hit outs to advantage and the Panthers will be hoping to convert his dominance in the ruck to clearances.
If the Panthers backline can hold firm and control the game like they did in the semi final, they could be holding up the cup on Saturday afternoon.
It's easier said than done as they'll have to do it again against a side that has lost just twice in 755 days come Saturday.
A good omen for the Panthers is that Keilor's last loss before its dominant run was against Pascoe Vale, the last time these sides last met at Windy Hill.
