MARIBYRNONG PARK v PASCOE VALE
Saturday 2:15pm at Maribyrnong Park
PASCOE Vale can’t finish any higher than where it currently sits in third place and could very easily miss the finals.
The reason for that is its wild inconsistency.
At their best, the Panthers are good enough to go with the top two teams in Keilor and Aberfeldie.
But unlike those two sides, Pascoe Vale has a habit of inexplicably dropping off badly in games they should be winning.
Last week Pascoe Vale could only muster four goals against an out-of-form Strathmore and went down by 72 points at Raeburn Reserve.
That’s a 138-point turnaround from the first meeting between the Panthers and the Mores back in Round 4.
Luke Foster and Daniel Johncock were the only regulars missing, so lack of personnel is not an acceptable excuse.
The only way for Pascoe Vale to respond is to beat Maribyrnong Park and to do it well.
Matthew Watson, Josh Cauchi, Daniel Archer and Jacob Polizzi will all be hungry for some better service and keen to hit the scoreboard, and if the Pascoe Vale midfield does its job against a younger Lions engine room, then you’d think the Panthers have enough fire power to get the job done here.
Maribyrnong Park is a tricky opponent, though, and the Lions are on the rebound.
The division’s big improvers lost a close one against Essendon Douttas Stars last week but have proven they can beat finals-calibre opposition, having knocked off Greenvale in Round 11.
It’s another massive danger game for the Panthers but all things being equal, they should have the superior 22 on Saturday.
ABERFELDIE v ESSENDON DOUTTA STARS
Saturday 2:15pm at Clifton Park
Professionalism is something Aberfeldie excels at, and we saw it on full display at Section Road last week.
The premiers were slow out of the blocks against arch rival, Greenvale, but managed to regain control of the game after quarter time to collect an impressive 22-point win.
Some ‘less talked about’ Gorillas in James Peters (four goals), Sam Cattapan (two) and Victor Carboni all starred in the absence of Jaryd Cachia, Zach Hislop and Kyle Reimers.
It was Aberfeldie’s seventh win in a row and with victory against another big rival here, they’ll again have a top two spot locked in.
If that happens, Aberfeldie’s next game at home to undefeated Keilor will be a dead rubber.
So there’s plenty on the line for Adam Potter’s men.
The challenge for Essendon Doutta Stars is to resist Aberfeldie’s forward thrusts for four quarters.
The Stars have been defensively sound for much of the season, only conceding more than 100 points twice.
But up forward, they’re struggling to make it count on the scoreboard.
Much like last week’s win over Maribyrnong Park, Douttas needs to make this a low-scoring scrap in order to snatch an upset win.
GLENROY v GREENVALE
Saturday 2:15pm at Sewell Reserve
There was a fair bit conspiring against Glenroy last week, namely its ongoing injury and suspension woes that are really stretching the club’s depth.
Airport West came to play at Glenroy last week and the Roys couldn’t match them, going down by 11 points in a good contest at Sewell Reserve.
But the loss didn’t come without its positives, as Glenroy’s forward trio of Judd Brewster (three goals), Adam winter (three) and Adam Del Busso (two) all combined to produce a solid eight-goal output.
The only problem was the lack of scoring coming from elsewhere, with the other 19 Glenroy players only chipping in three more goals for the day.
The Roys have a good chance of winning if their forward line can take advantage of a vulnerable Greenvale defensive unit that is lacking key position help for Tom Cleary.
The Jets have injury woes of their own after losing Fort Caruso to a likely season-ending knee injury in last week’s loss to Aberfeldie.
Both Maric brothers also missed last week’s game and if they’re not part of the 22 here, then Glenroy could gain the upper hand in the middle.
Greenvale should still probably win, but this looms another massive danger game.
STRATHMORE v AVONDALE HEIGHTS
Saturday 2:15pm at Lebanon Reserve
It was a very nice return to form for Strathmore last week.
The Mores travelled to Raeburn Reserve and pulled Pascoe Vale’s pants down, restricting the Panthers to a season-low 27 points.
At other end of the ground, Strathmore welcomed Alex Grima and Shane Foulds back into the side and while both only combined for two goals, the Mores did hit the scoreboard with 29 scoring shots.
Adam Iacobucci (pictured) is putting together yet another fine season and starred with two goals last week, while Nick O’Brien was again impressive.
When all of the guns are firing, Strathmore can just about beat anyone on its day and with a very kind run home that does not include anymore games against the top two, you’d expect confidence levels to be pretty high.
If Strathmore brings the heat and plays close to its best, then Avondale Heights is going to struggle.
The Heights are on a seven-game losing streak.
Since the halfway mark of the year they have been one of the division’s better defensive teams, but cynics will argue their opponents have been less than efficient in front of the sticks.
If relegation is decided by percentage, then Avondale Heights has to find ways to lock games down, especially while Hisham Kerbatieh remains out of the line-up with an ankle injury.
A strong defensive mindset is their key to victory here.
KEILOR v AIRPORT WEST
Saturday 2:15pm at Keilor Reserve
When an undefeated, top-of-the-table premiership favourite hosts a relegation-threatened cellar dweller, the outcome is inevitable more often than not.
Had Keilor have kicked straight, they would have won by close to three figures last week.
Instead, the Blues defeated Avondale Heights by only 35 points and for the first time since Round 2 in 2017, Dean Galea’s name was not featured among Keilor’s goal kickers.
Luckily Matthew Clark stepped up to the plate, booting four majors to go along with two more from 2016 premiership captain, Dylan Joyce, who has kicked five of his nine goals for the year in the last three weeks.
The Blues are simply over-powering everyone that gets in their way and it seems the only thing that could bring them undone this weekend is complacency.
But Airport West, despite its ladder position, deserves respect.
The Eagles are clearly a better side now than they were when they lost to Keilor by 76 points back in Round 5.
Their two main stars, Damandeep Aujla and Tyson Young, both produced their best month of footy in July and defensively, they’re conceding lower scores-against than they did earlier in the year.
Expect Airport West to deliver an improved showing than what they dished up in Round 5, but think twice before tipping the Eagles for an upset win.
